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The snowpack on the Colorado River this year averaged 71% of normal, setting up water rationing for Arizona.
Last year, we only had one or two storms that left snow in Payson — including this storm that frosted the bare limbs of the cottonwoods on the East Verde River. However, we didn’t get enough snow to release water from the depleted C.C. Cragin Reservoir. That could happen for a second year in a row according to current forecasts.
The snowpack on the Colorado River this year averaged 71% of normal, setting up water rationing for Arizona.
Last year, we only had one or two storms that left snow in Payson — including this storm that frosted the bare limbs of the cottonwoods on the East Verde River. However, we didn’t get enough snow to release water from the depleted C.C. Cragin Reservoir. That could happen for a second year in a row according to current forecasts.
It’s not just bad.
Turns out, we’re in the midst of the worst drought in the Southwest in the history of record keeping — which goes back 1,200 years based on tree ring growth patterns.
The wet monsoon offered hope and the big snowstorms in December made us giddy — but January proved one of the driest on record — moving the Southwest into all-time record status, according to a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Arizona’s doing better than the rest of the Southwest due to a wet monsoon, but on the whole the past 20 years stand as the driest since A.D. 800 — the limit of the estimates offered by tree ring studies, according to the researchers from the University of California and elsewhere.
The current drought dwarfs the dry spell thought to have caused the collapse of civilizations throughout the Southwest in the 1200s and 1300s.
The researchers estimated that the buildup of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere released by human pollution turned a middling dry spell into a record-setter. The higher average temperatures increased evaporation, making the water shortfall in rivers, streams and soils at least 60% worse than it would have been.
All indications suggest that drought will last at least another year and may end up exceeding the previous record for not only intensity but duration.
The study suggests we’re likely to face additional years of dangerous wildfire seasons, as well as continued rationing of Colorado River water Arizona normally collects through the Central Arizona Project.
The tree ring record showed that last summer marked the second driest summer in the Southwest on record — second only to 2002.
Heavy snowfall for about two weeks in California’s Sierra Nevada stoked hopes the drought would end — or at least produce a rare, “normal” winter. Instead, January proved one of the driest ever recorded in much of the American West.
The watersheds of the Salt and Verde rivers fared better than the Colorado. Roosevelt Lake remains 72% full, even though the Salt River and Tonto Creek are currently flowing at about a third of normal for this time of year. The Verde River’s doing a little better, with flows at 74% of normal — although reservoirs on the Verde are down to 40%.
The C.C. Cragin Reservoir stands at about 42% full, far less than normal for this time of year — but better than the giant reservoirs on the Colorado River. If we don’t get a final winter storm or two in February or early March, Payson will likely face another year of minimal deliveries from the reservoir, which currently contains 6,300 acre-feet — compared to about 15,000 acre-feet when its full.
The past month has largely dashed hope of a decent spring runoff in the Colorado River. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Colorado Basin Forecast Center said most of the Colorado River watershed hit record or near-record low precipitation in January. Lake Powell inflows from April through July are now projected at 78% of the 30-year average. Remember, most of that 20-year period was marked by record drought. In fact, Lake Powell inflows have been above average in only four of the past 22 years.
The low snowpack is compounded by unusually dry soils. As a result, even if storms break through the current pattern — the soil and plants will soak up the moisture rather than producing runoff. In addition, the above average temperatures will cause more evaporation — further reducing runoff.
The global pattern will likely have severe and complex impacts on the Southwest, especially the duration and intensity of the upcoming wildfire season.
For instance, climate researchers have documented an unexpected and complicated link between sea ice coverage in the Arctic and the intensity of the wildfire season in the Southwest, according to a Science Daily summary of a study by scientists from the Department of Energy’s Northwest National Laboratory.
The sea ice melt in the Arctic from July to October warms the increasingly iceless surrounding waters. This affects climatic patterns in a way that produces a longer, more intense fire season in the American West in autumn and early winter. The link resembles the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, based on sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
“Connections like this are a bit like the butterfly effect,” study co-author Hailong Wang told Science Daily, in reference to the often repeated notion from chaos theory that the flapping of a butterfly’s wings would trigger a cascade of changes that creates a distant tornado. “Climate conditions in one part of the world can, over time, influence climate outcomes from thousands of kilometers away.”
The melting sea ice forms an atmospheric vortex that pushes the polar jet stream out of its normal pattern, deflecting moist, ocean air away from the western U.S. This leads to the formation of a second vortex. As the ocean absorbs more heat due to the reduced ice cover, it strengthens the push and pull between the two vortexes — which produces ever more severe fire weather in the West.
The past three years have produced two record-breaking fire seasons in the Southwest.
The researchers found the link by analyzing four decades of recorded sea ice levels and teasing out the patterns through climate modeling at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory. Sea ice coverage has declined by 13% per decade since the late 1970s.
Contact the writer at paleshire@payson.com
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Peter, let us not forget In March 1956 the level was 1083' compared to 1067' last month, then reached max capacity of 1225' in July 1983. This is why we have dams and water management. Of course, we must be mindful of the population growth exceeding our water resources, which has a greater impact to water levels. In 1960 our population was 1.3M, now it is 7.5M and still exploding. Where does all that water come from to support this growth? That is the question most native Arizonan's ask themselves, so we do not wind up in history like the Hohokam.
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